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the_birds
05 Feb 2008, 11:23 PM
Cue the music...

Da Da Da, da da da, da da da

It looks like the big Super Tuesday winner is...Hillary Clinton (and John McCain)

In the most significant, paradoxical, epochal turn of political events in United States history, the winds of change are a gale force bringer of destruction to politics, pollsters, prognosticators and politicians! To be brief, its looking like the Hispanic vote is weighing in and the verdict is... white women make better tacos than black men! So far, with the primaries in Midwestern, Eastern and states that have a more 'traditional' American race breakdown, the winners have been somewhat predictable. But now with the race shifting to states with large cities with significant Hispanic populations, traditional politics is being obliterated. Its early, but when Hillary gets most of California's delegates, Obama will officially be 'on the rocks.' I think California will split somewhat North half to Obama and mostly south half to Clinton

On the future losers side, Hispanics are also making an effect strongly supporting John McCain, and his strength in the West should give him California also. It will be an interesting race, but with many of the post-Super Tuesday states being Western, I predict that John McCain will win the Republican nomination. Romney is already toast, with Huckabee actually having a more feasible chance at 2nd place. McCain's support of a comprehensive reform of immigration buoys his support from the Hispanics who would vote Republican.

Today is the day that will be remembered as the day that the Hispanic voter took a colossal step to being a genuine king-making constituency. With their backing, Hillary and McCain will win the nominations, with Hillary winning if their support and current support of candidates holds true. McCain's nomination does throw the wild card of support for immigration reform. But his being from the most notorious state of draconian laws against immigrants, puts it all in perspective.

Its not too late for Obama to turn it around, its just not very likely. According to exit polls, Hispanics are heavily supporting the two big nominees. For Obama to significantly dent the numbers this late in the game, its just not very likely to happen. Just for Obama to stay in it, he's got to cream every delegate he can get. Then, if it starts to look like its a done deal for Clinton, black supporters won't have many qualms going to Hillary.

But I'm not putting any hard money on anyone, its still a race, but it is looking a helluva lot more clearer.

classicgrrl
06 Feb 2008, 12:28 AM
uh....calling it a bit early ain't ya?

OH may very well decide it in March...

Breeze
06 Feb 2008, 06:05 AM
uh....calling it a bit early ain't ya?

This stems from the early Super Bowl predictions on Sunday. :)

the_birds
06 Feb 2008, 07:31 AM
uh....calling it a bit early ain't ya?

Not really.

Obama is going to come out with support for immigration reforms, speak some Spanish at his speeches and make a run at it. Plus, his machine will get out and deal with the issue. Nothing is certain in this race. I am supporting Obama.

And Breeze, if Hillary comes out of her Manhattan apt. with a protective boot on, all bets are off. :D

dragonflier
06 Feb 2008, 08:27 AM
Even with last night's results, Obama has momentum--he erased 20+ leads by Clinton in many of these states down to single digits. Plus he's out-competing her in raising money almost 3 to 1 ($32 million in January vs. $13 million).

Breeze
06 Feb 2008, 08:27 AM
And Breeze, if Hillary comes out of her Manhattan apt. with a protective boot on, all bets are off. :D
Don't forget the flowers.

berzerker
06 Feb 2008, 10:21 AM
Not really.

Obama is going to come out with support for immigration reforms, speak some Spanish at his speeches and make a run at it. Plus, his machine will get out and deal with the issue. Nothing is certain in this race. I am supporting Obama.

And Breeze, if Hillary comes out of her Manhattan apt. with a protective boot on, all bets are off. :D

Let's get Jessica Simpson a pink jersey that says "Clinton" on the back.

euro60
06 Feb 2008, 10:51 AM
Its not too late for Obama to turn it around, its just not very likely.


For reasons I've mentioned elsewhere already, this prediction is woefully premature. From NPR:

Obama won 13 Super Tuesday states; Clinton, eight plus American Samoa. Clinton scored the advantage in delegates, bring her total to 845 to Obama's 765, by the latest accounting. The road ahead is long for the Democrats: It takes 2,025 delegates to claim their nomination.

Fourthisto
06 Feb 2008, 10:53 AM
There's still time.....

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v435/Fourthisto/OLD%20STUFF/ouch.jpg

Breeze
06 Feb 2008, 11:25 AM
Let's get Jessica Simpson a pink jersey that says "Clinton" on the back.

And send them both to Mexico for a few days before the next round of primaries.

markalot
06 Feb 2008, 11:39 AM
There's still time.....

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v435/Fourthisto/OLD%20STUFF/ouch.jpg

I can't think of a better post.

the_birds
10 Feb 2008, 08:14 PM
I'm glad Obama's picking up steam and delegates. He needs the momentum for March 4.

How is he looking in Ohio? I'm hearing the states' leaning toward the traditional Democrat in Hillary?

I don't think he's all that strong in Texas. I mean, there is no shortage of Hillary haters down here, but they aren't Democrats. On a absolutely shocking turn of events, one of the most outspoken, never seen a camera she didn't love, Black Female Representatives down here has come out for Hillary! On the other hand, Obama's decidedly late opening of a campaign office in our fair city was met with an impromptu parade of sorts. Right now, I would give the edge to Hillary. But big mo and Obama are starting to take hold. I'm hoping Obama's advisors get the tricky Texas dems right.

euro60
10 Feb 2008, 10:26 PM
How is he looking in Ohio? I'm hearing the states' leaning toward the traditional Democrat in Hillary?
as of right now, that's probably true (according to the (reliable? unreliable?) polls), but there is a looooong way to go between now and early March. The primaries are (mostly) about momentum, and it's impossible to predict what's going to happen by then. That's really the skinny of it.

the_birds
11 Feb 2008, 05:00 PM
Big mistake for Obama's people, to schedule a debate in Austin and not in Houston. I'm seeing this as evidence that his campaign doesn't have a clue about the Southwest. Austin is a slam dunk for Obama, its the liberal heart of Texas. He should be debating in Houston, where there is the most at stake and Dems are a little more suspicious.

He lost total number of delegates in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas too? Spelling some trouble for the big O?

george
11 Feb 2008, 05:25 PM
Per the dailykos:

Regression analysis predicts Clinton +10 in Texas; Obama +10 in Ohio.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/9/13227/22519/239/453361