Advantage: Kerry

[Robert Goodman]

Recently most media outlets have said that there are 3 key battleground states that can take the election, Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania (27, 21 & 20 electoral votes). Whoever wins 2 or those 3 has the clear advantage on election night. Not that polls are the end all end all, but Kerry seems to be in a very strong position. Though Bush is ahead in the popular vote (as Al Gore was in 2000), if Kerry gets Ohio he clearly has the advantage. He already has PA pretty strongly in his pocket, as Bush does Florida. So Ohio may be the golden grail for him, as it could be for Bush as well.

Todays AVERAGE of many different Ohio polls show Kerry up 1.5% over Bush...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

[the-dude]

for the first time in a while http://www.electoral-vote.com has ohio as a barely kerry state. The projector has been projecting kerry for ohio, but the current leader hasnt been kerry in ohio for a while according to them.

"The most recent poll in Ohio, Zogby's tracking poll, puts Kerry a tad ahead there, 46% to 45%, well within the margin of error. Other Ohio polls are mixed. Rasmussen's tracking poll puts Bush 4% ahead but the LA Times poll puts Kerry 4% ahead. Let's call Ohio a tie. Which way it goes will almost assuredly depend on the turnout Tuesday, especially among younger voters. Could OSU elect the next president? It is not out of the question."

Go Bucks!

[slmpickens]

I heard Tim Russert say the other day something along the lines of, "There are only three important things in this elecetion: Ohio, Ohio, and Ohio." So it's kind of cool to be in the middle of it all, but also scary to think that I could be at ground zero of another Florida fiasco.

[the-dude]

slimpickens, great name!

[slmpickens]

thank you, donny

[the-dude]

nice!

here is another interesting excerpt from electoral-vote.com

"Ellis Henican had a very insightful column yesterday that is relevant to the Rasmussen poll I cited yesterday in which 1/3 of the voters weren't sure the election would be fair. Henican said the banks execute millions of ATM transactions every day, giving the customer a printed receipt if requested, and get them all right all the time. Not a margin of 1%, no recounts, but 100% right all the time. Why can't we make a voting system that is 100% right all the time? It would seem to me that the right way to do this would be a touch screen machine that asks the voter to make choices for the various offices in a language chosen by the voter (with audio output if desired), and when all done prints a paper ballot the voter can personally verify and deposit in the ballot box. The computer total would be available instantly after the polls close but in the event of a challenge, these paper ballots could be optically scanned or even hand counted. I can't believe a system like this is infeasible and it would certainly help restore faith in the electoral process."

I hear that.

[xu92]

An independant poll of the xu92 household has it as a dead heat. With myself for Bush and my wife for Kerry.

The constant jabs of Bush being a tyrant fighting an unjust war, and Kerry being a flip-flopping baby killer have done little to sway the other side.

Unless xu92 can get his 13 month old registared to vote, this one will most likely be decided in the House of Representatives.

[slmpickens]

There was a show on one of the Discovery channles I get about voting I saw yesterday. It mentioned the ATM-style voting machines and all of their advantages. Of course the problem is that everyone is partisan so changing the election process so it's fair doesn't make sense to a politician who only wants to change the process so it favors his/her party. Just look at Ken Blackwell in Ohio, enforcing ridiculous laws to limit the number of people who can vote. By the way, did anyone see the Daily Show making fun of him last night? I loved it.

[postfeminist]

our household is probably 44 votes for kerry.

[clarification: i'm a hall director at oberlin college, and the house where my apartment is located has 42 students living on the 2nd & 3rd floors.]

the thing that gets me is this: a few weeks ago, i was just feeling shitty because i thought kerry had no chance. now i have hope rising in the back of my throat like bile, and i'm trying to fight it back down because i'd rather be depressed than disappointed & enraged.

[the-dude]

Originally posted by slmpickens
By the way, did anyone see the Daily Show making fun of him last night? I loved it. NOOO! I bet that was good. Guess I'll see it at 7pm tonight.

[vivalamusica]

Originally posted by the-dude
for the first time in a while http://www.electoral-vote.com has ohio as a barely kerry state. The projector has been projecting kerry for ohio, but the current leader hasnt been kerry in ohio for a while according to them.


Go Bucks!

Another site to check is http://www.race2004.net/election.php

It supposedly uses data from the last several polls, and the expected break of undecided voters to call the states.

[slmpickens]

There's an article on CNN.com today about the possibility that W stays president, but Edwards becomes VP. Linky. (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/27/campaign.tie.reut/index.html) Part of me would like to see a mess like this happen, because then we may actually start talking about doing away with the electoral college. It's kind of like the damn BCS in college football. Last year's failure makes it so obvious that it sucks.

[vivalamusica]

A quick canvas of this household shows 2 votes for Kerry, 0 for Bush. Yay! Too bad Kerry's going to get clobbered here in KY, though.

[BigSugar]

Originally posted by postfeminist
our household is probably 44 votes for kerry.

[clarification: i'm a hall director at oberlin college, and the house where my apartment is located has 42 students living on the 2nd & 3rd floors.]

just like an Ohio Democrat. 42 registered voters and 44 ballots cast. LOL! :p

[onest2.0]

Just like an Ohio republican, failing to realize that postfem is married, thus adding 2 to the student count of 42.

:p