Bush increases polling lead

[DudeMan]

I gotta admit, I was pretty surprised by this (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/19/bush.kerry.poll/index.html), considering the very tough last few weeks we've had in Iraq. (current poll: Bush 51, Kerry 46, which is outside of the margin for error)

Looks like President Bush is opening up a lead. Not sure if it's due to the heavy media purchases, the economy that's picking up steam, or a somewhat flat Kerry performance over the last few weeks that has failed to capitalize on his post-nomination-season bounce.

Is Kerry going to end up playing the role of Bob Dole from 1996? ie, a guy everyone likes but no one is passionate about who fails to catch fire and defeat a President who polarizes the electorate into love'im or hate'im camps?

[slow-dog]

I know you know this Dude, but I just thought I'd state that while this is good news for Bush, nationwide polls are just about worthless other than gaining a general sense of how well a candidate is doing compared to the previous week. It's all about state-by-state polling, which gives you an idea of how the Electoral College is looking. Anyone have links to any good state-by-state polls yet?

[red embers]

Originally posted by DudeMan
Is Kerry going to end up playing the role of Bob Dole from 1996? ie, a guy everyone likes but no one is passionate about who fails to catch fire and defeat a President who polarizes the electorate into love'im or hate'im camps? I was just thinking this the other day, how this campaign is like Clinton/Dole. A lot of people were ticked off with Clinton like some are with Bush, but Dole couldn't generate enough enthusiasm with the conservative base or independents.

It's interesting to note that the lead doesn't much with or without Nader.

[DudeMan]

Originally posted by slow-dog
I know you know this Dude, but I just thought I'd state that while this is good news for Bush, nationwide polls are just about worthless other than gaining a general sense of how well a candidate is doing compared to the previous week. It's all about state-by-state polling, which gives you an idea of how the Electoral College is looking. Anyone have links to any good state-by-state polls yet?
You mean to tell me that the candidate who garners the most votes nationwide may not actually win the election??? No way -- that'd never happen! ;)

No, I haven't seen the state-by-state breakdown, but that would be really interesting, so if some enterprising pundit out there has that, please post. The current press-mantra is that "Ohio is this year's Florida", but I dunno.

To further compound things: even though the state-by-state buildup is ultimately the better thing to look at, the polling has a greater margin for error and less sophisticated sampling techniques at the state level. So, the roll-up could very well be less accurate than the national numbers. But, that's what makes politics so fun, too...

[IPrayForSound]

Originally posted by Frost
hatriotism Good word. I'd use the "thumbs up" icon for my post, but I'm boycotting it. Damn spammers.....

[dcXhc]

I preferred this Harvard poll (http://www.iop.harvard.edu/programs/other/natlsurvey/april_2004_topline.pdf), which found that Kerry had a double-digit lead on Bush among potential college voters in the presidential election, but also found that Bush beat Kerry on the all-important "who would you rather have as your college roommate" question.

[slow-dog]

Originally posted by dcXhc
I preferred this Harvard poll (http://www.iop.harvard.edu/programs/other/natlsurvey/april_2004_topline.pdf), which found that Kerry had a double-digit lead on Bush among potential college voters in the presidential election, but also found that Bush beat Kerry on the all-important "who would you rather have as your college roommate" question.

How'd the manage to take a statistically significant sample at Harvard and have 33% of the people identify themselves as born again Christians?

[tobedawg]

The poll has been bouncing back and fourth.. AND this time, it happens to be in Bush's favor.. Maybe he has successfully painted John Kerry as a "Tax and spend flip-flopping Boston Liberal"??

Kerry really needs to pick a VP and start swinging.. I hate to say it but Kerry should pick someone in the very center.. Preferably John Edwards.. NOT someone like Joe Lieberman.. If Kerry picks someone like Lieberman as his running mate, it may convert some swing voters, but the progressives will go running to the arms of Ralph Nader!! but maybe not?? What is scarier the thought of 4 more years of Bush and Dick Cheney as VP or 4 years of Kerry and Bush-lite as VP?? It's a gamble that could either make or break Kerry..

[DaysWithoutEnd]

The title of this thread is funny.

I second the props for 'Hatriotism' - i may have to borrow it.

[dcXhc]

Originally posted by slow-dog
How'd the manage to take a statistically significant sample at Harvard and have 33% of the people identify themselves as born again Christians?

I think the actual poll participants were from other colleges. Still, 33% seems mighty high.

Had they polled at Harvard, the response would have been: Marxist 86%.

[Bronzetree]

Originally posted by DaysWithoutEnd
I second the props for 'Hatriotism'

Third.